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Summary — Arrighi - Crises of the Capitalist World. [LLM assisted]

This article by Giovanni Arrighi and Beverly J. Silver analyzes the structural crises and transformations of the capitalist world-system through the lens of systemic cycles of accumulation and hegemonic transitions.

Core Arguments:

  1. Cyclical Nature of Capitalism: · Capitalism undergoes long cycles alternating between material expansion (investment in trade and production) and financial expansion (speculation, credit, liquidity). · Financial expansions are not new stages of capitalism but recurrent “autumn” phases signaling the maturity of a cycle and often preceding systemic reorganization.
  2. Four Systemic Cycles of Accumulation: · Genoese-Iberian (15th–early 17th c.) · Dutch (late 16th–late 18th c.) · British (mid-18th–early 20th c.) · US (late 19th c.–present, currently in financial expansion) · Each cycle is led by a dominant complex of governmental and business agencies that shape the global regime of accumulation.
  3. Hegemonic Transitions: · Financial expansions coincide with periods of hegemonic transition, where one leading power declines and another emerges. · Past transitions (Dutch → British, British → US) involved systemic chaos, social conflict, and interstate competition before a new order stabilized.
  4. Evolutionary Pattern: · Each new hegemon internalizes more costs than its predecessor: · Genoa externalized protection. · Netherlands internalized protection. · Britain internalized production. · US internalized transaction costs and markets. · Despite this evolution, each transition also revives earlier strategies in new forms.
  5. Current Transition (US Hegemony in Crisis): · The US-led financial expansion since the 1970s resembles past “autumn” phases. · However, the current transition has unique anomalies: · Bifurcation of military and financial power: The US remains militarily dominant but is a net debtor, while financial power is dispersed to East Asian “cash-box” states (e.g., Japan, Singapore). · Social conflict preceded financialization: Unlike past transitions, the social upheavals of the 1960s–70s came before the financial expansion, which has served to contain social demands rather than address them. · Shift of economic gravity to East Asia: This region—outside Western civilizational history—is becoming the new workshop and creditor of the world.
  6. Possible Futures: · The authors caution against mechanically projecting past patterns. · The crisis may lead to: · A new hegemony (possibly with “world-state” features). · Continued chaos if the US resists adjustment. · A new developmental path led by East Asia, if it can address systemic inequalities and social reproduction costs. · Social movements will play a decisive role in shaping the outcome.

Conclusion:

The present period is not a new stage of capitalism but a hegemonic transition analogous to past shifts. Its outcome depends on geopolitical adjustments, social struggles, and whether emerging powers—particularly in East Asia—can offer systemic solutions to global inequalities and instability.

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